The year 2023 was the hottest in recorded history, marking a major escalation in the climate crisis. North America, Europe, and China were all hit with unprecedented heat waves, and these soaring temperatures have led to natural disasters.
The Amazon rainforest also went through a record drought in 2023, with major implications for its ecosystem and the planet as a whole. According to a new study, climate change was the main driver of this drought.
Let’s dive into the heart of this ecological crisis and explore the role that climate change and other factors played in the Amazon drought of 2023.
How Climate Change Caused the Amazon Drought
The Amazon River Basin has been in an exceptional drought since the midway point of 2023. According to a study recently released by the organization World Weather Attribution, climate change was the primary driver of this ecological catastrophe.
The study combined analysis from scientists in Brazil, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. These researchers found that in addition to climate change, the drought was exacerbated by human activity, such as deforestation, fires, corporate farming, cattle ranching, and the destruction of vegetation.
Data from the study shows that the drought was unprecedented, even as droughts have become more common worldwide with the worsening of climate change. The Amazon drought was classified as a 1 in 100-year event for meteorological drought. The researchers determined that the drought would have been highly unlikely in a cooler climate.
The researchers noted that although El Niño has also led to lower amounts of precipitation, this decrease was equal to the precipitation reductions caused by climate change and that the current drying trend in the Amazon is primarily driven by climate change. According to the study, the drought would not have been as extreme if not for the emissions created by the burning of fossil fuels, like coal, oil, and gas, which is the main cause of climate change. The study found that climate change made the Amazon drought 30 times more likely.
Impact on Amazonian Communities
The ongoing Amazon drought has impacted more than 30 million people living in the Amazon Basin, which includes parts of Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, and Bolivia. Many of these communities rely on the region’s rivers for transportation and access to food, water, healthcare, and work. As the drought intensified and river water levels reached historic lows, these communities became isolated and were unable to access crucial supplies for months.
Brazil’s Amazonas state was the most affected by the drought, and state officials declared a public emergency in September. The state has used aircraft and boats capable of navigating shallow waters to deliver drinking water, rice, beans, and other foods to communities. They have also been using helicopters to airlift people to hospitals. Approximately 7,000 students have been forced to switch to remote learning, as they are no longer able to access their schools.
Human activity beyond climate change also played a role in causing the drought. According to the study, the Amazon has been impacted by large-scale industrial beef and soy production, as vast swaths of the rainforest have been cleared for this purpose. This is believed to have made the drought worse, as the loss of vegetation has caused the land to retain less water.
Potential Future Impact of the 2023 Amazon Drought
While the Amazon Basin is already struggling with the consequences of the 2023 drought, some experts believe that the problem will only get worse in the coming years. Some scientists have even predicted a worse drought in 2024, and many experts believe that the Amazon will only recover from the drought by 2026, in a best-case scenario. If El Nino conditions persist, the drought could last even longer.
According to these scientists, the current drought will likely impact the annual rainy season and last until the next rainy season near the end of 2024. They believe that a 2026 recovery is the best-case scenario because the basin will likely require two normal rainy seasons before normal soil moisture is restored.
Economic Impact
Brazil’s economy has already been hard hit by the drought. Part of a $15 million river port in the state of Itacoatiara collapsed in October due to the crumbling of dry, loose soil. The port infrastructure is only five years old. In the port of Manaus in Amazonas, river water levels fell to 121-year lows, which prevented container ships from accessing the city for more than 50 days. Industrial ships that transport over 40% of Brazil’s grain exports have been running at half capacity since the drought.
In the Manaus free trade zone, assembly lines at major factories like Honda and LG were shut down due to a lack of access to imported parts. Positivo Tecnologia, an electronics producer, projected revenue decreases of 15-35% due to the drought.
Farmers have also been forced to adjust to the drought, with many only able to plant one crop this year. This is projected to result in a loss of millions of tons of soy and corn, two of Brazil’s biggest exports.